Liddle argues that the UK is “exposed to great economic risks as it heads towards the severe Covid 19 emergency, with the negative effects of a no deal or a very naked trade deal that we are probably heading towards”. However, the agreement would not cover access to the internal market/internal market for each party. In this respect, this would mean a reduction in the current level of liberalised access. In a speech, Johnson said, “We want a comprehensive free trade agreement similar to Canada`s, but if we don`t succeed, our trade must be based on our existing withdrawal agreement with the EU.” “To this end, the best-case scenario path is a minimum trade deal.” “The challenge is to ensure that business confidence does not fall under the crossfire of tough public negotiation,” he said. “Talking about a bare-bone market could interrupt investment.” Trade will be far from fluid under a free trade agreement, with increased management, respect and delays that all entail additional costs. Even a “bare” trade deal should allow the pound to recover some of the soil it has lost since the beginning of the year. Sabine Weyand, the EU`s trade director-general, however, said it was time to negotiate a “naked” deal with the UK next year, given the transition period will give negotiators less than 12 months of talks. In this regard, both sides should focus on putting in place an agreement on new mutually beneficial trade agreements by the end of 2020. Johnson had previously called for the bare bones of a deal to be in force before a summit of EU heads of state and government on 15-16 October. The transition period avoids the immediate prospect of a “hard” Brexit, but can only delay it until 2021 if new agreements are not reached.

At the end of the transitional period, EU trade agreements will not apply to the UK. In order to ensure the continuity of the trade agreement for Uk businesses, the UK is working to replicate the impact of existing Europe Agreements. If the effects of an existing EU agreement are not replicated, trade with other WTO members will take place under WTO conditions. . . .